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RETAIL SALES SEE SOLID GAINS IN FIRST HALF OF HOLIDAY SEASON

November retail sales grew a solid 5 percent year over year and 0.1 percent from an already-strong October as consumers found the deals they were hoping for both online and in stores and showed their purchasing power during the first half of the holiday season, according to calculations released today by the National Retail Federation. Online and other non-store sales grew 15.3 percent year over year, reflecting the growth of online shopping. The numbers exclude automobiles, gasoline stations and restaurants.

“Consumers were able to take advantage of low prices throughout the first half of the holiday season, checking out with full baskets but paying less even though purchasing was up,” NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said. “The combination of job and wage gains led to solid holiday spending by American households.”

“Consumers have the wherewithal to spend but households remain measured and rational, which is no surprise given their history since the recovery began in 2009,” Kleinhenz said.

There were broad-based monthly increases across the majority of sectors with the exception of sporting goods.

November’s results indicate that retail sales for the holiday season will meet or exceed NRF’s holiday sales forecast, which anticipates an increase of 3.6 percent over last year’s level for November and December. For a look into the art of forecasting, read Kleinhenz’s article: The Art and Science of Economic Forecasting.

A few specifics from the report include:

  • Online and other non-store sales increased 0.1 percent seasonally adjusted over the previous month and increased 15.3 percent unadjusted year-over-year.
  • Sales at clothing and accessories stores were flat from the previous month and increased 1.9 percent unadjusted year-over-year.
  • Sales at general merchandise stores increased 0.1 percent seasonally adjusted over the previous month and decreased 1.4 percent year-over-year.
  • Electronics and appliances stores’ sales increased 0.1 percent seasonally adjusted over the previous month and decreased 2.5 percent unadjusted year-over-year.
  • Furniture and home furnishings stores’ sales decreased 0.7 percent seasonally adjusted over the previous month and decreased 7.2 percent unadjusted year-over-year.
  • Sales at building materials and supplies stores increased 0.3 percent seasonally adjusted over the previous month and increased 7.5 percent unadjusted year-over-year.
  • Sporting goods stores’ sales decreased 1 percent seasonally adjusted over the previous month and increased 1.6 percent unadjusted year-over-year.
  • Sales at health and personal care stores increased 0.1 percent seasonally adjusted over the previous month and increased 7.7 percent unadjusted year-over-year.

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